The Two Majorities and the Puzzle of Modern American Politics
Byron E. Shafer
April 2003
360 pages, 6 x 9
Paper ISBN 978-0-7006-1236-9, $19.95
Where
did the Era of Divided Government come from? What sustains split
partisan control of the institutions of American national government
year after year? Why can it shift so easily from Democratic or Republican
presidencies, coupled with Republican or Democratic Congresses?
How can the vast array of issues and personalities that have surfaced
in American politics over the last forty years fit so neatly withinindeed,
reinforcethe sustaining political pattern of our time?
These big questions constitute the puzzle of modern American politics.
The old answera majority and a minority party, plus dominant
and recessive public issueswill not work in the Era of Divided
Government. Byron Shafer provides a convincing new answer that has
three major elements. These elements in combination, not divided
government as a catch phrase, are the real story of politics
in our time.
The first element is comprised of two great sets of public preferences
that manifest themselves at the ballot box as two majorities. The
old cluster of economic and welfare issues has not so much been
displaced as simply joined by a second cluster of cultural and national
concerns. The second element can be seen in the behavior of political
parties and party activists, whose own preferences dont match
those of the general public. That public remains reliably left of
the active Republican Party on economic and welfare issues and reliably
right of the active Democratic Party on cultural and national concerns.
The third crucial element is found in an institutional arrangementthe
distinctively American matrix of governmental institutions, which
converts those first two elements into a framework for policymaking,
year in and year out.
Shafer examines how dominant features of the Reagan, first Bush,
Clinton, and second Bush administrations reflect the interplay of
these three elements. He also ranges across time and nations to
put these modern elements and their composite pattern into a much
larger historical and institutional framework. In this light, modern
American politics appears as a distinctive recombination of familiar
elements of a political style, a political process, and a political
conflict that has been with us for some time.
Could be the definitive work on American party politics
of our generation.--Michael Barone, Senior Writer,
U.S. News & World Report
These thoughtful, coherently related, and wide-ranging essaysby
one of Americas most accomplished political scientistsreflect
astutely on underlying sociocultural trends in recent American
history, thereby offering readers a wealth of insights.--James
T. Patterson, author of Grand Expectations: The United
States, 19451974
Shafer is not timid about drawing big picture implications
from what we know about important political questions. His book
provides an extraordinary glimpse into the mind of one of the
most creative scholars of American politics.--Charles
O. Jones, author of Separate but Equal Branches: Congress
and the Presidency
BYRON E. SHAFER is Glenn B. and Cleone Orr Hawkins Professor
of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin. His many books
include Contesting Democracy: Substance
and Structure in American Political History, 17752000.
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